The Most Populous Countries in the World

Population rankings change year to year because growth rates diverge sharply between regions. Here is the current picture, and where it is heading.

The top ten

1. India — over 1.4 billion. Now the most populous country, having passed China around 2023, and still growing.
2. China — around 1.4 billion. Its population peaked and has begun to decline, due to decades of low fertility.
3. United States — around 335 million. Growth is slow and increasingly driven by immigration.
4. Indonesia — around 280 million. The fourth-largest country by population and the largest Muslim-majority one.
5. Pakistan — around 240 million and growing quickly; likely to overtake Indonesia within a couple of decades.
6. Nigeria — around 220 million. Projected to become the world's third-most-populous country by around 2050.
7. Brazil — around 215 million. Growth has slowed sharply as fertility has fallen below replacement.
8. Bangladesh — around 170 million, in a country roughly the size of the US state of Iowa — one of the most densely populated large countries on Earth.
9. Russia — around 145 million, and slowly declining.
10. Mexico and Ethiopia — around 130 million each, vying for tenth place; Ethiopia is growing far faster.

What is changing

• India will extend its lead over China for decades, because China's population is falling while India's is still rising.
• Nigeria is on track to overtake the United States for third place around the middle of the century.
• The Democratic Republic of the Congo, Ethiopia, Tanzania, Egypt and the Philippines are all growing fast enough to enter or climb the top ten.
• By 2100, the majority of the world's projected population growth is expected to be in sub-Saharan Africa, with several African countries entering the global top ten for the first time.
• Europe and East Asia are ageing and, in many cases, shrinking.

Population versus area

Population rank and area rank line up poorly. India is 1st by population but only 7th by area. Canada is 2nd by area but around 37th by population. Bangladesh is 8th by population but around 90th by area. Density is the missing variable: Bangladesh, the Netherlands, South Korea and India are extremely dense; Canada, Australia, Russia, Kazakhstan and Mongolia are nearly empty by comparison. See countries by area for the other ranking.